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  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by David Bowman View Post
    My guess is that many retailers are going to start changing their policy on what they "track" in their sales and what they don't.
    Hmmmm. Some are way ahead of that
    Gabriel Suarez

    Turning Lambs into Lions Since 1995

    Suarez International USA Headquarters

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel Suarez View Post
    Hmmmm. Some are way ahead of that
    Frankly Gabe, I think this would be an excellent point to highlight on the website, as well as any advertising you do. Obviously it would be counterproductive to not keep records of gun sales, and meet minimum ATF record keeping requirements, but advertising the site as, "We keep no records of your purchases!" Or something of that sort, would be a huge selling point for many. Get the word out.

    ETA: For that matter, it might not be all that bad of an idea to resell a few hundred of these Rare Breed FRS triggers with the above highlighted.
    Last edited by georgeib; 01-27-2022 at 07:03 PM.
    “You have made us for yourself, O Lord, and our heart is restless until it rests in you.” -Augustine

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by David Bowman View Post
    . Will they have a warrant when they show up? Maybe. But more likely they are going to show up and attempt to bully you into compliance.
    .
    Odds are a billion to one that they won’t show up on your doorstep. It will just be a letter. If they do show up, it’s a fishing expedition. The best response is a blank stare and silence.
    Virtute et Armis

  4. #14
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    There are some items you buy at a gun show, preferably out of town. Pay cash.

  5. #15
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    My actual thought on this was. Hmmmm...sales must be down.
    Leaked memo maybe? Maybe not?
    I'd be more interested in a statement from a manufacturer myself after their initial contact with the ATF.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigEd63 View Post
    My actual thought on this was. Hmmmm...sales must be down.
    Leaked memo maybe? Maybe not?
    I'd be more interested in a statement from a manufacturer myself after their initial contact with the ATF.
    Well...that is a clever way to increase sales. I will tell you that by this time next year, the number of companies in the gun business will decrease dramatically.

    The industry is in a huge downturn. I haven't seen it like this since the 2013-2014 slump. We are down about 50% in sales from 2020 and 2021 sales numbers. So there is that.

    I will say too that if you are planning to buy something, and you have the coin, might be a time to do it...and support the companies that you like and give you value in return...not just the ones with cheap fuck prices. So that in 2023 you don't have to ask why so-and-so isn't posting anything...or why a forum is no longer on line, etc. Just saying...
    Gabriel Suarez

    Turning Lambs into Lions Since 1995

    Suarez International USA Headquarters

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel Suarez View Post
    I will tell you that by this time next year, the number of companies in the gun business will decrease dramatically.

    The industry is in a huge downturn. I haven't seen it like this since the 2013-2014 slump. We are down about 50% in sales from 2020 and 2021 sales numbers.
    I'd be interested in more detail on this. I realize it's largely prognostication and reading tea leaves, but you're in a much better position from which to predict the future of the industry.
    Is there a type or class of guns or other products that you expect to suffer disproportionately?
    Are there particular products that you foresee facing a shortage?

    I've done a pretty good job of stockpiling for my future. If I could never buy another gun or magazine again, I'd be fine (and I could still equip a decent sized squad). The only thing I don't have a lifetime supply of is ammo, and I have plans to remedy that--I'm just watching the market and waiting for the right moment. But despite having everything I 'need,' there are still lots of wants.
    Virtute et Armis

  8. #18
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    Apparently its already happening. The Miami Herald just posted an article about a gun shop getting shut down and employees getting arrested for selling illegal machine guns. The article used all of the usual rhetoric.

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by LawDog View Post
    I'd be interested in more detail on this. I realize it's largely prognostication and reading tea leaves, but you're in a much better position from which to predict the future of the industry.
    Is there a type or class of guns or other products that you expect to suffer disproportionately?
    Are there particular products that you foresee facing a shortage?

    I've done a pretty good job of stockpiling for my future. If I could never buy another gun or magazine again, I'd be fine (and I could still equip a decent sized squad). The only thing I don't have a lifetime supply of is ammo, and I have plans to remedy that--I'm just watching the market and waiting for the right moment. But despite having everything I 'need,' there are still lots of wants.

    I dont know. An associate tells me Shot Show had a very dismal showing this year. I think there are multiple reasons for that.

    SI is a very nimble company with cash reserves...but when I see a 50% reduction in total revenue in the years 2020 and 2021, it raises my eyebrows. When I visit a very large distributor here in Prescott and I see their staff sitting around chatting, and their "outgoing" shelves nearly bare, it makes me wonder about their longevity.

    Right now, many gun businesses are subsisting on reserves. We arent there yet but if 2022 sales go the way of 2021, we may be in that territory. And those reserves are not unlimited. If you enjoy what we offer...understand its not really free.

    Just saying.
    Gabriel Suarez

    Turning Lambs into Lions Since 1995

    Suarez International USA Headquarters

  10. #20
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    Aug 2012
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    Not to derail the thread further, but what is up with the industry that would be pushing sales and revenues down so much? I know my purchases and those of friends have been up 2020 to 2021 to 2022 YTD. Are we the exception?

    [edit now that I'm on a computer and not a phone]

    A couple other thoughts:

    I would add that one of the confusing aspects of the industry at this point is that all the vintage stuff in the gun shops has straight dried up. Want to find a pre-lock S&W revolver in a shop or an actual SAA? Good luck. Sure, it's secondary market resale we're talking about with this, but people used to trade in and shops made some money on reselling the used stuff, plus made money on ammo and holsters and such purchased for the used stuff they sold. Did gunbroker put an end to that? Hell, you can't hardly find any S&W revolvers in shops around me. Or Ruger ones, for that matter, except sometimes they have those new polymer (???) ones.

    Ammo availability is clearly an issue, but I'm not sure that availability is the driving factor. If I can buy brass cased 9mm 124gr ball for $17/50 shipped to my house as a retail customer (where the entity I buy it from is presumably making some money, as did the wholesaler/importer they bought it from), how is it that the shop can't sell 9mm for less than $30/50 for Wolf/Tula? Sure, it's not $9/50 9mm like we had a few years ago, but we aren't talking $1/round.

    Is the issue one of oversaturation of firearms? I am told that at some point you could have enough of a particular platform or firearm type. Sad if that's true. Guess this possibility explains the 30 Super Carry rollout, right? But honestly, if things I wanted were available, I would buy more of them than I do presently. Turkish stuff and low-end crap is everywhere, but quality stuff is still scarce. I don't care that an SCCY can be had for $259 with a $25 mail in rebate. It could be $75 net cost to me for all it matters. Same result.

    If there is a market slowdown, do we think that this will translate to shorter wait times for custom work? I've had a hankering to have a couple rifles built, but with even local folks running 12-18 month backlogs to build a bolt gun, this moves it out of the realm of an impulse buy and then I think about how little I really need a rifle in 250 Savage or 7x57, given that I don't handload. I have to think that a lot of this industry is driven by impulse buying.
    Last edited by M_P_E; 01-28-2022 at 05:13 PM.

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