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  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by H60DoorGunner View Post
    I seriously doubt things will go kinetic with China. Not directly anyhow. My money is on Cold War Pt. 2, with a bunch of proxy wars between us and them, in the same vein as Korea, Vietnam, and Central America.

    Both the US and China stand to profit more and lose less from those types of wars than we do fighting each other directly.

    ETA: With that, I would expect to see old stocks of QBZ-95's appearing in the hands of Africans and whomever else the Chinese wish to use to foment trouble around the world. Just as we saw the AK-47 proliferate for the same reasons.
    I agree that not going CWII is the smart move for PRC, and an option they will take. Their international trade and economic policies embody that strategy already. That said, Taiwan has been itch they've wanted to scratch since the 1950s. I think it comes down to do they want to play chicken or not, and how bad they want it.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by P.D. View Post
    I agree that not going CWII is the smart move for PRC, and an option they will take. Their international trade and economic policies embody that strategy already. That said, Taiwan has been itch they've wanted to scratch since the 1950s. I think it comes down to do they want to play chicken or not, and how bad they want it.
    Economic and political issues " at home " will dictate when " The Party " decides to truly go kinetic......the Party comes first...everything else is expendable.
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  3. #13
    I take a bit of a contrarian view on this…hear me out…

    Crazy Uncle Joe and the Hoe got their noses rubbed in the dirt about the Afghani surrender…I fear he might want to show everyone he’s a big boy and fight…it will either be a quick rout by the ChiComs due to over restrictive ROE or he goes big stick without regards to casualties in theater or back home…not sure if the ChiComs launch any conventional submarine torpedo, mine or cruise missile attacks on the west coast,,,

    The other dark horse is Japan…they are a tad nervous with these scenarios…I had read that they are steaming with us if Taiwan gets hit…China hits Japan through arrogance or miscalculation and it’s game on…granted, the Chinese have a historical blood feud with Japan, but they have to realize they would get quite bloodied by the JSDF…and if Japan gets hit, we are in…

    Although I still think the smartest Chinese play is for Mr. Xi to invite the Taiwanese president to a summit somewhere really neutral, like Geneva…sit down and make the plea that they would rather negotiate it out rather than a blood bath on both sides of the Strait…offer respectful retirements to the Taiwanese military and let anyone who wanted to leave without penalty and with some aid…

    Just a couple of my thoughts…

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by mfjudge View Post
    I take a bit of a contrarian view on this…hear me out … I still think the smartest Chinese play is for Mr. Xi to invite the Taiwanese president to a summit somewhere really neutral, like Geneva…sit down and make the plea that they would rather negotiate it out rather than a blood bath on both sides of the Strait…offer respectful retirements to the Taiwanese military and let anyone who wanted to leave without penalty and with some aid…
    That's not going to happen -- or at least the Taiwanese aren't going to buy the deal. PRC showed their hand on that one with Hong Kong.

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by P.D. View Post
    That's not going to happen -- or at least the Taiwanese aren't going to buy the deal. PRC showed their hand on that one with Hong Kong.
    One thing Chinese Communists and Kuomintang (rulers of Taiwan) have had in common is little toleration for dissent. I have worked with Taiwanese that is the impression that they imparted to me. Perhaps it is different in Taiwan today. In asia there is a tradition of shooting suspects in police stations and both communists and anticommunists have done it.
    But if there is a threat of invasion I suspect they would clamp down.
    The past: Wiki
    In Taiwan, the White Terror (Chinese: 白色恐怖; pinyin: Bis Kǒngb) was the suppression of political dissidents following the February 28 incident by the Government of the Republic of China ruled by the Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party).[1]
    The period of martial law lasted 38 years and 57 days from 19 May 1949 to 15 July 1987.[2] Taiwan's period of martial law had been the longest period of martial law in the world at the time it was lifted, but has since been surpassed by the Syrian 48-year period of martial law, which lasted from 1963 to 2011.[3]

  6. #16
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    I worked with someone that had been a captain in the Taiwanese army that for a Chinese was not traditional and he got in trouble. During a training exercise he contradicted his colonel. Nothing was said at that time, but later on at a party where there was drinking that colonel put a gun to this fellow's head. He used the excuse of being drunk for having done it, but that was not the reason. Such people do not take well to publicly being disrespected by subordinates. Their reaction to dissidents is based on the same thinking. Neither side confuses good government with democracy.

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