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  1. #11
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
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    Palmer, Alaska
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    6,694
    Another lesson is that no location is safe. My focus is less on the Church than on the town. I know nothing of Sutherland Springs, but it appears close enough to San Antonio to be considered a suburb. While not remote and rural, it is definitely not San Antonio. I expect these kinds of tragedies to occur in certain places--New York, Los Angeles, Berkeley. Houston or Dallas wouldn't surprise me. Austin would seem downright appropriate. San Antonio seems less likely. A small suburb outside of San Antonio seems highly unlikely. And yet it happened.

    I grew up just outside of Atlanta, at a time when the murder rate was about 50 per 100,000. That's considered high, even for a Mexican border town. I now live in a town where the murder rate is essentially zero. In this past year, we had a murder. It was gruesome. But it was singular. It would be easy to drop your guard here. It's the kind of place where people will brag that they don't lock their doors at night. I still maintain all of the defenses and awareness that I developed in Atlanta. Whether the murder rate is 1,000-to-1 or 100,000-to-1, it's all the same to the 1.

    Rory Miller has done an excellent job of categorizing different types of violent criminals. His work, which I would recommend everyone read, does an excellent job of covering the bases for >99% of the criminals that we have to concern ourselves with. But he neglects the crazed mass murderer. I think that is appropriate, because of the statistically unlikely nature of mass murderers. Planning your defenses with too heavy a focus on mass murderers could result in leaving gaps open to far more likely threats. You don't want to be one of those 'preppers' who is all ready for an EMP or a solar flare but neglects to prepare his coastal Florida home for a hurricane. Focus on the likely threats first.

    One of the distinguishing features of the crazed mass murderer is a lack of geographic predictability. Though commentators have pointed out the harm that could be caused if terrorists hit the "heartland," terrorists still seem to focus their wrath on fairly urban locations. Perhaps this is because middle eastern muslims recognize that they can't blend into the population in Kansas. Perhaps it is because they need a more dense population in order to make their attack effective. Whatever the reason, experience shows that populated areas are at a greater risk of terrorist attack. Drug crime is also greater in urban areas. Crime in general is greater in those areas where the population is larger.

    We must distinguish between the true terrorist and the crazed murderer. Mohammed Atta was not crazy. He was a terrorist. There is a fundamental difference between a man who is committed to a cause and then uses violence to achieve it, and a man who is committed to violence and seeks a cause to justify it. Devin Patrick Kelly may have latched onto a political ideology that allowed him to justify his violence, but he does not appear to be a man committed to a cause.

    Crazy people are random. They pop up everywhere. Crazy people are ten times more likely in a city with ten times the population, but are still proportionately representative. This means that you are just as likely to have a crazed murderer in 1,000 random people in Tupelo, Mississippi as you are 1,000 random people in San Francisco. You can move somewhere with a lower violent crime rate. You can move somewhere that is less effected by the War on Drugs. But you can't escape crazy. The number of people who are so far out of balance that they will take the plunge to commit mass murder is astronomically small. But a corollary of that small sample size is that they end up randomly distributed throughout the world. You can't get away from them. You can't meaningfully reduce your chances of encountering them. (Because the odds are super low no matter where you are.)

    The lesson is this: You can't escape from this type of crime by moving to a place with less crime.
    Virtute et Armis

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Location
    Southeast Florida
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    1,534
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Anthony View Post
    Another big takeaway:

    FIGHT.

    Reports of people huddling in the aisles, waiting as this douche shot babies point-blank.

    It's harsh, but this was ONE dude. ONE muzzle. You can get shot, even fatally, and still stop this guy, even if for some unholy reason you were "unarmed" that day. F*cking die laying on top of this bastard, with your thumbs in his eye sockets, if that's your only option.

    I don't even have kids, but I can't even imagine sitting there waiting to die while someone's shooting them.
    I think this is one of the biggest lessons all people should learn from this (and many other incidents in history), yet few will talk about it (especially those with a big platform) because nobody wants to be accused of being insensitive or harsh with the victims and survivors. Yet we all know that mindset is the most important element--weapons are important but mindset comes first.

    The media is reporting today that there is video showing him systematically executing people with head shots. At some point, anybody still with the ability to move should have seen the window of opportunity when his attention was focused elsewhere and taken action.

    It will never happen, but after every event like this I wish somebody would ask the survivors "what were you thinking?" Did you have an opportunity to rush him from behind? Why didn't you do something? Were you just hoping that if you stayed still you might be spared?

    Of course the primary responsibility is on the men, but at some point the mama bear mentality should kick in with the women as well. Across our society, we are seeing the fruits of the programming that has been pushed on us for many years. If things get bad enough, people may wake up, but it will be messy.

    The decisions must be made in advance--as is often said, you will not rise to the occasion, you will fall to the level of your training/preparedness.

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Central Texas
    Posts
    1,169
    A LOT of good info here. My dad and his four brothers always kept something loaded and handy at all times. Usually, the trinity of Texas, rifle, pistol, and shotgun. Almost always by or over the front door too. I am the only one that went/goes barefoot, and I've always had some sort of adequate slip on shoe handy (Not flip-flops or the like). Something is always handy, and right now, my loaded G19 sits beside me.

    Last week, I heard some erratic banging going on across the street. I saw a stranger walking thru the sparse woods and he disappeared behind the neighbor's house. Neighbor was at work, so I grabbed the cell phone and a pistol and went to investigate. Turned out to be a fence builder there doing some repairs with his truck parked behind the house. I secured all needed info from the guy and called the neighbor for verification. He was legit so I let him go and went home. I was damned disappointed that it wasn't a burglar or the like, and it marred the rest of my day.

    So, like all others have stated, stay prepared so that you may act/react PDQ to whatever threat is likely for you. No one can prepare for everything, but most things are easily taken care of.

    jim
    2 Samuel 22; Psalm 139:21-22

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    2,094
    On weapons - Yes, I know Willeford used a rifle to kill the gunman (he gets the score, I am not buying the suicide thing). But that was a fortunate happenstance. These events will invariably be handled with the pistol that is already in your belt rather than the rifle you go and get. And given that armor is prevalent, the traditional notion of center of mass shots is no longer valid.
    I see this as critical. Just as we are fond of saying "when seconds count, the police are only minutes away"...the same could be said for many instances of "going for the rifle".

    I prefer the rifle, and if given the luxury of time to have a rifle immediately available, I wouldn't hesitate to choose it above any other available platform for most situations.

    HOWEVER, this was one of those times when someone carrying a pistol with immediate access and the skill to make a HS from 25yds and in could have saved many lives. Like Gabe, I don't want to disparage the gentleman who put a stop to the shooting, but loading up an AR magazine with loose rounds on the run is not a go to option.
    In order for the underprivileged and inept to feel adequate, the skilled and capable must be made stupid by decree.

    - Gabe Suarez, 12/13/2011

    “If a broad ban on firearms can be upheld based on conjecture that the public might feel safer (while being no safer at all), then the Second Amendment guarantees nothing.”

    - Justice Clarence Thomas

  5. #15
    Join Date
    May 2000
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    The Republic of Pirates
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    44,881
    Quote Originally Posted by SigPro09 View Post
    a pistol with immediate access and the skill to make a HS from 25yds
    And where have we seen this sort of thing before i wonder?
    Gabe Suarez

    Turning Lambs into Lions Since 1995

    Suarez International USA Headquarters

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    2,094
    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel Suarez View Post
    And where have we seen this sort of thing before i wonder?
    I wonder...
    In order for the underprivileged and inept to feel adequate, the skilled and capable must be made stupid by decree.

    - Gabe Suarez, 12/13/2011

    “If a broad ban on firearms can be upheld based on conjecture that the public might feel safer (while being no safer at all), then the Second Amendment guarantees nothing.”

    - Justice Clarence Thomas

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Chattanooga TN
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    5,882
    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel Suarez View Post
    And where have we seen this sort of thing before i wonder?
    Hmmmm....I don't know?

    http://www.warriortalk.com/showthrea...h-Randy-Harris

    Last edited by Randy Harris; 11-08-2017 at 04:34 PM.
    Suarez International Tier 1 Staff Instructor
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    TRAIN with me....https://suarezinternational.com/sear...h_query=harris

    Fundamentalist Christian Man at Arms

    AKA - CRUEL HAND LUKE

    Joel 3:10 - Beat your plowshares into swords , and your pruning hooks into spears; train even your weaklings to be warriors.

    Through HIS power I can walk on water..IF I just have the faith and courage to get out of the boat.

    A good man who's done a couple of bad things along the way....

  8. #18
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Illinois (the good part)
    Posts
    15
    Been registered and lurking to soak up what this old brain can soak up for a while. I've read in some accounts that the shooter fired over 450 rounds in the church. That's 15 conventional magazines. I'm not former military or LE, and not into the "tactical dress" lifestyle, so I'm wondering how the shooter got that many magazines in the building with him. He was reported to be wearing body armor. Would some of the tactical or loop vests carry that many loaded magazines?

    Having said that, can we learn from that? Would it be advisable to have such a piece of gear, filled with loaded AR/AK mags and several loaded mags for our carry piece, hanging close at hand near our back door or easily accessible in our vehicle? Perhaps many of you already do this. As has been said, my carry pieces are always loaded, fully and always with more than one extra magazine at hand. The truck rifle is cased and unloaded, but at minimum 4 loaded mags with an extra box or two of loose rounds in the case. But being able to grab one piece of gear and know that you had "x" number of rounds might be comforting in certain situations.

  9. #19
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Palmer, Alaska
    Posts
    6,694
    Quote Originally Posted by abolt243 View Post
    I've read in some accounts that the shooter fired over 450 rounds in the church. That's 15 conventional magazines. I'm not former military or LE, and not into the "tactical dress" lifestyle, so I'm wondering how the shooter got that many magazines in the building with him. Would some of the tactical or loop vests carry that many loaded magazines?
    If true, that amount of ammo might be proof in and of itself of insanity. That many magazines is excessive. Even in Fallujah, even when rolling mounted, 15 magazines is excessive. If you need that much ammo, you select something that feeds from a belt. For a legit warfighter, eight mags is pretty common. Unique situations, like a forward deployment with no chance of air support or resupply, might dictate more. But more would be an aberration.

    The more mags you carry, the less mobile you are. Your own size plays into this equation, though. I'm an average-sized guy, and not fighting a war. I have various pieces of kit to grab for differing scenarios--a war belt, a Sneaky Bag, a chest rig. They all carry 3 or 4 spare rifle mags, and 1 or 2 spare pistol mags. (If I'm grabbing the bag, I'm grabbing a rifle, so the ammo is slanted in favor of the long gun.) If I carry more than that, it slows me down. But I can carry that much without sacrificing speed, so that's what I carry.

    Simply having a rifle with a fully-loaded magazine is a pretty good start. A spare magazine is always advisable--not simply for the ammo, but because a magazine failure is the most likely malfunction you face. After that, it's gravy. If you want to add a third or fourth magazine, go for it. But I would set a baseline minimum of a rifle and one spare mag. This is for normal people in a defensive scenario, not someone knowingly entering a war zone.
    Virtute et Armis

  10. #20
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    The Republic of Pirates
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    44,881
    Quote Originally Posted by LawDog View Post
    Simply having a rifle with a fully-loaded magazine is a pretty good start. A spare magazine is always advisable--not simply for the ammo, but because a magazine failure is the most likely malfunction you face. After that, it's gravy. If you want to add a third or fourth magazine, go for it. But I would set a baseline minimum of a rifle and one spare mag. This is for normal people in a defensive scenario, not someone knowingly entering a war zone.
    ....and shoes...lets not forget shoes.
    Gabe Suarez

    Turning Lambs into Lions Since 1995

    Suarez International USA Headquarters

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